Currently, the only game bethesda has announced that will probably be released in 2015 is the console version of ESO. But how much hype and profit will there be from a game that's been out on PC for some time with a lukewarm reception?
Doom will have a beta in 2015 along with Battle cry, the Marketing push for the evil within is already ending and will be old news by VGX. Doom will more than likely get a trailer at VGX, but why would they need to be "planning" this so far in advance? A trailer for an already announced game with a teaser trailer and gameplay shown to a select few isn't really that huge of a deal. Fo4 has at least been in full development for a good 20 months by December, much more than skyrim (hypothetically speaking) was. The bgs team moved on from skyrim 4 months after the last expansion, dragonborn, was first released. If they followed a similar schedule after the release of the last fallout 3 dlc mothership zeta, moving on 4 months after the last dlc, they only had a year or so of "full development" on skyrim before they announced it, making a Fallout 4 reveal past due, barring some major setback. There's no reason given this long development time that bgs wouldn't be ready to show off a trailer of the game.
It's the perfect time: Above notwithstanding, the VGX is the most logical time for multiple reasons. There aren't any places in between the VGX and E3 with the type of mass publicity, and awareness in the video game world. Sure there is PAX East, but how many people actually know about pax east or when it is or how to watch it. Most with an interest in gaming know of the VGX and e3 and know when both are and that they both (usually) are broadcast on spike tv or their website. Bethesda has stated in the past that they don't like to reveal anything at e3, simply because it's too big, and other big announcements, could possibly overshadow their announcement. And without a shadow (of Boston) of a doubt, if Fallout 4 were announced at VGX, considering the lackluster past couple of years, it would own the show and internet.
Bethesda can't just release 1 previously released game and expect to generate any considerable amount of hype or profit. Since Prey 2 is now out of the picture, the only 2 games that could have a shot of being released next year, are Fallout 4 or Dishonored 2 (Unless they have another new IP in the works which is unlikely) And a dishonored 2 reveal is probably even less likely than a Fallout 4 one. Unless Bethesda are run by retarded monkeys, they must know how huge Fallout 4 will be. Any PR or marketing person worth their salt would see a fake fallout 4 trademark as the #1 trend on twitter and realize this. Bethesda currently have in their pocket, the single most hyped unnannounced game out there (half life 3 notwithstanding). No developer out there could announce anything that would generate the amount of hype and anticipation among the masses that Fallout 4 could. Skyrim wasn't just a game, it was an event, transforming bethesda into a powerhouse if they weren't already, and Fallout 4 will undoubedtly as evidenced, be a bigger deal than Skyrim. Rockstar could, but they already released their main event, and won't be talking about another for at least another year for two, so right now, bethesda is in a big position of power, why wait for something else to come along to take away from Fallout 4's thunder?
All the other clues: Why would bethesda dismiss the shadow of Boston trademark so quickly? Partly because yes, after the survivor they don't want another PR disaster, but it could also be to clear the air for a real announcement. If they let this fake trademark hang in the air too long un-debunked, and they actually planned to announce it at VGX, people 1) would not be very surprised, since they would've already assumed the trademark as confirmation of Fallout 4's existence, this dampening bethesdas big "surprise" reveal and
2) lead to mass confusion among the common fans who assumed shadow of Boston is real, and are left confused with the reveal of something different.
I'm no marketing expert but this is all basic business logic. Don't let others define your product. Also take note of the difference in wording from them simply saying during the survivor hoax "PSA: if you didn't hear it through an official channel, assume all rumors to be false." See they never actually mentioned the survivor hoax by name. In the swift denial of the shadow of Boston trademark, they didn't just reissue that PSA. They said "the German patent making the rounds is false" as to not leave any doubt what exactly they were talking about. Pretty much everything bethesda does is from a business standpoint, so it's reasonable to assume this was too. After all, bethesda isn't all about fan service, otherwise they'd be more open about their games development. They had no reason to be concerned during the survivor hoax initially, since they knew they wouldn't be talking about fo4 for a long time so they just let it go, until it started to negatively impact them. They probably would have let the shadow of Boston hoax live too if they had no business interest being affected by it.
Obviously Geoff keighely (host of VGX) and Bethesda have a good relationship, having revealed skyrim there and having interviewed Pete hines multiple times. And with his tweet my speculations were given even more weight. As already stated, I don't think just showing off a doom trailer would require much planning, (does he have "planning" sessions with everyone who shows a trailer at VGX?) but a fallout 4 reveal is of a higher magnitude and would need some planning, especially if they want to top skyrims reveal. They definetley could show a doom trailer and have a fallout 4 reveal, other companies have shown multiple games off at VGX before without issue. Some may point to Pete Hines saying a few weeks ago that bgs wouldn't be talking about Fallout 4 "any time soon" as reason enough that Fallout 4 won't be announced at the VGX. But I think that's more proof that it will, considering he about said the same thing a few months before Skyrim's VGX reveal. Lower everyone's expectations, then shock them when they least expect it. Another logical marketing tactic. Overall, a fallout 4 reveal would be a win win for the flailing VGX, Geoff keighely, and bethesda.
(Geoff Keighleys tweet:
https://mobile.twitter.com/geoffkeighley/status/525847243765448704)
We've all seen the little subliminal hints thrown in in recently published bethesda games wolfenstein and the evil within. Whether they mean anything is questionable at best, but look at it this way. If a developer working on the evil within has lunch with a developer from bgs, (assuming they're friendly with each other) they'll probably share info on what they're working on. I highly doubt they would be so secretive around each other. Then what other way to show your excitement and tease players as to what's coming next in the Bethesda arm then a little reference or Easter egg? Bungie did a similar thing with halo 3 and destiny years before.
So to all the naysayers out there who say there's no chance of a VGX reveal of Fallout 4, I feel I have given a decent argument to the contrary and would love to hear any argument debating my points above. Overall I feel a VGX reveal is very possible, and if I had to bet on a date or place it would be announced, I would bet on this. Besides, there's no date any fallout fan can say with certainty that's when fallout 4 will be announced, you just never know with bethesda. There strategy could be unfolding right now before our eyes with no one expecting an announcement "any time soon", then hit us with the earthshaking surprise. Or I could be wrong and it really won't be announced any time soon.
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