Lets do some Math! Weeee! Ok, Take-Two's predictions are $1.8 billion, that is $1,800,000,000!
Now, Mr. Zelnick says that 55% (previously 60%) of that belongs to R* games, while 45%(previously 40%) belongs to 2K. 55% of $1.8 billion is 990 million, $990,000,000, and according to Zelnick, Max Payne 3 has sold 3 Million Copies in 2 1/2 months, and giving Take-Two the benefit of the doubt here, I will calculate that they receive 100% of the $60 spent on one copy of the game... Now, all those copies sold has made 180 Million dollars ($180,000,000.) That leaves 810 Million Dollars left. Ok, Now giving the benefit of the doubt again, lets say that 2/3 of people that bought the game buys the 'R* Pass,' Which cost $29.99 rounding to $30, that is another 60 Million Dollars, so we are now sitting at a total of 240 Million dollars for Max Payne 3... with a huge benefit given.
That leaves 750 Million Dollars left that is supposed to be Garnered by R* games... Where is that going to come from??? Keep in mind that 240 million Dollars is from giving Take-Two the benefit of the doubt, cause as you should know, Retailers Make profit on selling new games too, the whole 60 dollars for a new game does NOT go to the publisher.
I know Max Payne 3 has only been out for 2 and half months, and it still has until March 31st 2013 to sell in this fiscal year, but lets face it, with as slowly as this game has sold and is selling, Adding 60-120 Million dollars (1-2 million more copies sold) to what that game has made would be seriously pushing it. But what the hell, lets do it, hypothetically it sells 2 million more copies, so that brings the total to 360 Million Dollars for Max Payne 3 in FY 2013. That also brings the projected total of the 990 Million Dollars (55%) down to 630 Million dollars.
Again, where is 630 Million Dollars going to come from before fiscal years end? I have taken into account the DLC for MP3, but not digital sales of something like GTAIII that was supposed to come to PSN today, but didnt because of a song licensing issue or something, but sales of Digital content would even put a dent in 630 Million Dollars.
Ok, if GTAV Releases at the first of March 2013, It would have to sell Roughly 10.5 Million copies to make 630 Million Dollars. That Is Aloooooot to sell in one month, Even For GTA. Now... releasing in Feb. (Bioshock Month, so not likely but...) 10 Million Copies in 2 Months? Still pushing it very far. First of Jan. 2013, thats reasonable and do-able, 5 Million units sold on first weeks of launch, with very slowly declining but very steady sales 10.5 Million copies by March 31st 2013 easily reached.
NOW! If Zelnick really wanted to make investors happy, he has undersold that number, and a Nov.-Dec. or even an Oct. Launch for GTAV would be ideal, making a lot more copies sold meaning more Profit. <--- Wishful thinking and logical.
To wrap up.
Rockstars predicted contribution- 55% -($990,000,000)
MP3 copies sold so far- 3,000,000 -($180,000,000)
MP3 DLC [most everyone got season pass]-(60,000,000)
Potential MP3 sales for year 2,000,000 -(120,000,000)
Total for Max Payne 3 - 360,000,000
990,000,000
- 360,000,000
= $630,000,000
$630,000,000 Made By what? You be the judge.
